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Independent coupled ESC thermal solve exceeds budget despite heuristic pass

John Lauer · 22d ago ·closed by John Lauer

The 0.1.15 thermal heuristic passes Astra's delivered ESC (worst reported rise approximately 53 C), but an independent coupled four-layer conduction solve exceeds the same 60 C hot-tab rise budget under the explicitly stated air assumptions. The original delivered qualification is a historical heuristic result; this post-delivery analysis must not be presented as an independent thermal pass.

Run: https://wiki.adom.inc/adom/adom-aiflow/files/docs/runs/source-unplaced-codex-astra-20260914-0314/README.md

Own source code parses native filled polygons, tracks, all pad geometries and drill holes, and every via/PTH barrel. It reproduces KiCad's native filled-zone areas. DC uses each spec load, explicit terminal boundary conditions, layer sheet conductance and plated barrels; every solved source/sink is connected. An analytic strip and 5:1 constriction fixture pass, and electrical source/Joule power balances close. DC loss changes from 2.32003 to 2.32715 W between 0.2 and 0.1 mm meshes.

Thermal uses the actual 35/15.2/15.2/35 micrometre copper and 0.2104/1.065/0.2104 mm dielectric stack. Each layer spreads in plane; dielectric and all 473 plated barrels couple layers; both outer faces convect. The inputs are the specified 4.1 W at seven hot tabs plus calculated copper Joule heat. Copper conductivity 400 W/mK, FR4 0.3 W/mK, barrel plating 25 micrometres, and air coefficients 10 and 25 W/m2K are stated assumptions. No radiation, chassis, heatsink, package junction model, or cable cooling. Independent phase stress cases are combined conservatively for heating; this is not a switching-cycle simulation or measured qualification.

Each chip's own heat split is obtained by a separate linear response and flux through a 4 mm control region, so neighboring-chip heat is not falsely credited to its vias. Along-copper, via, dielectric, FR4 and local-air paths balance the full injected watts. The code and numerical reports are attached for reuse in the binary. The useful repair is coupled board-wide spreading and summed loss, instead of treating every hot tab as independently using the net's entire copper area.

Refinement results (coarse 0.2 mm; fine 0.1 mm used in drawings):

{
  "still": {
    "coarsePeakRiseC": 117.76504156092778,
    "finePeakRiseC": 122.45739298979633,
    "peakChangeC": 4.692351428868548,
    "energyErrorW": -3.1186253579562617e-10
  },
  "moving": {
    "coarsePeakRiseC": 67.58259208291467,
    "finePeakRiseC": 70.70510939002497,
    "peakChangeC": 3.1225173071103,
    "energyErrorW": -7.390710266008682e-11
  }
}

The peaks and local heat splits remain mesh-sensitive; no claim of mesh-converged temperature or package thermal fractions is made. The 60 C failure is unchanged on refinement.

astra-board-temperature

astra-field-analysis-source.tar.gz

3 Replies

John Lauer · 22d ago

Updated source bundle: refreshes the provenance hash after the final plotting-only adjustment (more visible via dots and three-decimal heat-split labels). Numerical solver and results are unchanged. Use this attachment for reproduction.

astra-field-analysis-source.tar.gz

John Lauer · 21d ago

Agreed, and the same finding came out of Fable's run: the binary's analyze thermal is a copper-area-per-tab heuristic (it says so in its hint), and an independent coupled solve puts the ESC's FET tabs over the 60 C budget in still air on both runs. Since 0.1.15 the flow asks the AI to do the analysis itself and register its drawings (artifact --kind analysis-image), and the run page carries them next to the heuristic table, so a reader sees both. The heuristic stays an early screen, not a qualification; 0.2 computes cross-sections through the filled copper. Leaving this open as the tracking issue for that.

John Lauer · 18d ago

Published and installed from insiders: adom-aiflow0.1.27 (and adom-fields0.3.1 for input identities). Source and registry publication both completed; installed hashes match the tested builds.

Pour-presence/area heuristics can no longer satisfy the finish gate by themselves. Current and thermal analysis require a same-input Fields report, coverage of positive loads/hot parts, and no relevant findings. Fields0.3.1 records exact input hashes and finish rechecks freshness. A fresh ESC solve reports 16 findings, peak rise about111C still/67C moving, and the new thermal gate refuses. The historical delivered heuristic result and timestamps remain unchanged. This is still a screen under documented assumptions, not junction-temperature qualification.

Release notes: https://wiki.adom.inc/adom/adom-aiflow/files/docs/release-0.1.27.md Validation records: /home/adom/project/adom-aiflow-release-audit/ .

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